DONDENA Seminar - Carl Schmertmann

“Small Area Mortality Estimation with Probabilistic Corrections for Data Errors”

SPEAKER: Carl Schmertmann (Florida State University)

ABSTRACT:

When estimating age-specific mortality rates, a vital registration system often provides numerators (deaths) and a census provides denominators (exposure).   Several types of systemic error could affect these calculations: under-registration of deaths, census enumeration errors, and misreported ages in either or both sources. In this paper we build a Bayesian statistical model for small-area mortality that accounts for these possible data errors. We apply the model to produce probabilistic estimates of period age- and sex-specific mortality rates and life expectancies for subnational areas (26 states and the Federal District) in Brazil 2009-2011. 

BIO:

Carl Schmertmann is Professor Emeritus of Economics at the Center for Demography and Population Health of Florida State University. His research interests are in mathematical and statistical demography. He has been a visiting researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, the University of Texas Population Research Center, and CEDEPLAR/UFMG in Brazil. He was editor in chief of Demographic Research from 2012 to 2018.