DONDENA Seminar - Marco Marsili

Demographic projections aim to outline the probable future of a population in terms of total size and structural components. This type of analysis is used by policymakers as a knowledge tool for understanding population aging trends, as well as a basis for developing additional predictive models. The potential uses of demographic projections are numerous, ranging from healthcare and social security planning to urban development and environmental-energy needs, from organizing educational infrastructure to planning transportation networks. 

Since the mid-1980s, Istat has been committed to presenting official demographic scenarios for the country at both national and territorial levels, and since 2016, this has been done through a semi-probabilistic model developed in a fruitful partnership with Bocconi University. Alongside the broader national and regional demographic model, which outlines the probable future of the resident population in its dynamic and structural aspects, additional predictive models have been introduced over time. Among these are a model for family forecasting and one for analyzing territorial depopulation. Today, in response to increasing demands for demographic sustainability information, a new model is being developed to capture transformations in the working-age population and to identify the country’s human potential in terms of labor market participation rates. 

The seminar aims to present the main methodological advancements underlying the models, as well as to outline the key scenario assumptions.