Principal Investigator: Aassve Arnstein

Contract Type: Grant ERC-HEUROPE

Project Funding: €885.000  

Period: 2023-2026


Researcher and Collaborators
Arnstein Aassve Professor in Demography, currently leading the FutuRes project - Towards a resilient future of Europe, a Horizon Europe collaborative project. He has published widely in demography, sociology, economics, public health and applied statistics. He has worked closely with EUROFOUND concerning trends in trust, social cohesion and economic and political discontent.

He is currently directing the PhD in Social and Political Science, has directed the BIEM and BIEMF undergraduate programs, acted as the undergraduate Dean of Bocconi and he has been the ERC panel chair for the starting grants in SH3 and SH7. He has awarded the ERC starting grant in 2007, and the ERC advanced grant in 2016






How fast will technology change? How will labour markets respond? Which policies will benefit Europe's resilience? Policymakers have questions. FutuRes has the scenarios.

The FutuRes project envisions a Europe strong and resilient which faces any future with confidence. By the end of 2025, FutuRes will provide science-informed scenarios of a resilient Europe. This means that we generate detailed data-based hypotheses of future developments, which will prepare the policymaker for challenges most likely to arise in certain circumstances.

Alongside its research, Futures develops the FutuRes Policy Lab, where scientists will engage with politics, civil society and the public. Rather than a teaching moment, the FutuRes Policy Lab is a resilience incubator, where research is shaped by researchers and stakeholders together. This will happen through a series of larger and smaller events across all three years.

Our transdisciplinary team is made up of demographers, economists and other social scientists. Together they push the boundaries of "crisis preparedness": with innovative data models and scenario building.

“FutuRes: Towards a Resilient Future of Europe” is funded by the European Union's Horizon Europe Research and Innovation programme. It is directed by Prof. Arnstein Aassve of Bocconi University in Milan, one of Europe’s leading experts on crisis resilience.

Research will happen in three steps: First, a policy-oriented framework on “resilience” in the context of ageing is built, including a robust terminology and a definition of “resilience” which can be employed in transdisciplinary research; Second, three teams of demographers will draw from data to identify the factors which promote resilience in individuals. They will classify these factors within the contexts of a) social inequalities b) fertility and b) migration behaviours; Third, the findings will feed into economic models that feed into scenarios for societal resilience reaching several decades ahead. From the findings, the project will generate policy recommendations.