Working papers results

In the past decade, the public in Europe has become more concerned about climate change and expresses stronger pro-environmental policy preferences. Based on data from the European Social Survey (2012-2022, 25 countries), we show that the increased exposure to temperature extremes has contributed to the observed changes in climate change attitudes and electoral support for environmentalist policy platforms.
For each additional degree of excess temperature experienced during warm spells measured over the previous 12 months, we find that the probabilities of being worried about climate change, of feeling responsible for climate change, and of voting for green parties and green coalitions increase by 4.0 [CI95: 2.5, 5.5], 2.5 [CI95: 1.1, 3.9], and 2.8 [CI95: 0.9, 3.7] percentage points respectively. We also document significant heterogeneity across individuals, based on gender and education, particularly between highly educated women and low-educated men. While the latter group consistently exhibits the lowest pro-environmental attitudes and voting, it is this group that shows the strongest increases when exposed to temperature extremes, converging towards the levels of their more educated counterparts. Further regional heterogeneity analyses reveal that the effects of warm temperature extremes are smaller in less prosperous or economically disadvantaged regions, as well as in regions with greenhouse gas emission levels above the median. The findings suggest a nuanced interplay between individual factors and contextual influences in shaping climate attitudes of European citizens and their motivations or reservations towards greater climate action.

Climate change-induced temperature increases and extreme weather events are impacting human health and wellbeing. Warmer temperatures are reported to affect both reproductive health and behaviors, possibly reducing birth rates. In a low fertility context, the potential negative impact that climate change might have on fertility is consequential. This study focuses on Italy, a low-fertility country disproportionately affected by climate change, with sharp regional disparities in both climate zones and economic development. Matching monthly birth registration data for the period 2003 to 2022 with E-OBS meteorological data, we analyze the relationship between heat exposure and total fertility rates in 107 Italian provinces (corresponding to the NUTS-3 classification). Results show that exposure to extremely hot days, which are defined as days with a mean temperature above 25°C, has a relatively immediate impact on conception probabilities as it reduces the total fertility rate nine months later. While this reduction is observed across both cold and hot climate zones, it appears to be larger for warmer provinces. The effect of temperature on fertility also varies with the per capita gross domestic product, where fertility rates in the richest provinces appear to be more sensitive to warming temperatures. The interaction between climate zones and GDP per capita revealed that hot above-average GDP provinces are the most affected by hot temperatures. 

We investigate the gender gaps in preferences for redistribution using data from the European Social Survey (ESS) over the period spanning from 2002 to 2022. We integrate individual-level socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, attitudinal factors, and macro-level influences. Our findings confirm significant differences among genders, with women generally expressing stronger preferences for redistribution than men. However, we uncover the multidimensionality of these gaps. Through a Gelbach decomposition analysis, our study identifies differences in beliefs and attitudes, especially egalitarian values and political ideology, as primary drivers of the observed gaps. Additionally, we document that not all women are more redistributive than men. The gender gaps, indeed, are neither uniform across age cohorts nor along different country-level conditions. Overall, the adult gender gap is the most pronounced, even if this evidence varies along macroeconomic contexts, across welfare regimes, and over time. Our  findings underscore the complexity of redistributive preferences, representing a challenge for future policy design from a gender-sensitive perspective.

This paper investigates whether the characteristics of locally elected officials influenced
excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data on Italy—
one of the first countries to be severely affected—we examine whether mayoral
education influenced municipal-level mortality outcomes. We estimate weekly
excess mortality using official death statistics and a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal
model. To address endogeneity in political selection, we implement
a close-election Regression Discontinuity Design. We find that college-educated
mayors significantly reduced mortality during the first wave of the pandemic, by
lowering both the likelihood of excess deaths and the excess mortality rate. These
effects are not observed in the second wave, likely due to policy convergence and
a stronger role played by national and regional institutions. Our design interprets
education as a proxy for broader leadership traits, such as decision-making capacity
under uncertainty. The findings underscore that political selection can have
real demographic consequences, shaping population outcomes during crises.