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Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions

Number: 33
Year: 2010
Author(s): Francesco C. Billari, Rebecca Graziani, Eugenio Melilli
We develop a method for the derivation of expert-based stochastic population forecasts. The full probability distribution of forecasts is specified by expert opinions on future developments, elicited conditional on the realization of high, central, low scenarios. The procedure is applied to forecast the Italian population, using scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office (ISTAT) and the Statistical Office of the European Union (EUROSTAT).

Francesco C. Billari

Universita Bocconi, Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics

 

Rebecca Graziani

Universita Bocconi, Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics

 

Eugenio Melilli

Universita Bocconi, Department of Decisions Sciences

 

 

Keywords: stochastic population forecasting, random scenario, conditional expert opinions, Italian population forecasts

 

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Keywords: stochastic population forecasting,random scenario,conditional expert opinions,Italian population forecasts