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Analysing fertility trends through Schmertmann's model: Italy and Sweden compared

Number: 4
Year: 2008
Author(s): Alessandra Carioli
Keywords: Second Demographic Transition,fertility trends,postponement,quadratic spline interpolation,Italy,Sweden
Using age specific fertility rates of Italian and Swedish women aged between 15 and 49 years old I examine the presence of fertility postponement in period and cohort outputs. Period data consist of standard five-year age group rates ranging from 1960 to 2005. Cohort data are arranged on age specific year groups born between years 1930-1970. The method used in this work is based upon quadratic spline interpolation procedure, developed by Carl P. Schmertmann (2003), in which three index ages determine the schedules shape. The recent fertility postponing behavior is investigated through the help of five index ages, which show the dynamics of postponement both in cohort and period data.

Alessandra Carioli

Universita Bocconi, Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics




Keywords: Second Demographic Transition, fertility trends, postponement, quadratic spline interpolation, Italy, Sweden


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A published version of this paper appears in Computational Statistics and Data Analysis:

Arpino B. and Mealli F. (2011). The specification of the propensity score in multilevel studies, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 55, pp. 1770-1780 (doi:10.1016/j.csda.2010.11.008).