DONDENA Seminar - Jeremy A. Ferwerda

You may follow the seminar at the following link.

“Evaluating the Political Sustainability of High-Skilled Immigration: Do Affordability Shocks Prompt Electoral Backlash?” 

SPEAKER: Jeremy A. Ferwerda (Dartmouth College).

ABSTRACT:

The public’s consistent preference for high-skilled over low-skilled immigrants has led scholars to suggest that immigration may be more politically sustainable in selective admissions systems. We evaluate this implication via an analysis of the Canadian immigration system, which uses points-based admissions for economic migrants. Following a 2015 reform, Canada nearly doubled permanent resident admissions. Despite robust initial public support, attitudes shifted markedly by 2024: for the first time in decades, a majority of Canadians opposed further immigration, and the federal government responded by sharply reducing its admissions targets. In this paper, we analyze the sources and consequences of this backlash, focusing on the effects of high-skilled immigration on affordability. Drawing on fine-grained admissions and housing data, we estimate the causal effect of immigrant inflows on local rental prices. We then link these price shocks to electoral outcomes. In doing so, we assess the extent to which backlash was driven by localized affordability crises rather than by a broader sociotropic reaction to immigration.

BIO: 

Jeremy Ferwerda is an Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. His research examines immigration, social policy, and populism within developed democracies. He is an affiliate of the Immigration Policy Lab, where he has worked with a variety of governments to improve economic and humanitarian migration policies. His academic work has appeared in Science, PNAS, Science Advances, the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, the British Journal of Political Science, and Comparative Political Studies, among others.