Working papers results

This article provides a general chronology of Italian famines, incorporating earlier chronologies as well as recent research on preindustrial mortality crises and covering the whole period from circa 1250 to 1810. Hypotheses about the occurrence of famines are tested using the largest-existing database of time series of burials, covering northern Italy and part of central Italy, as well as a database of time series of wheat prices covering the whole of the Peninsula. The role played by food provisioning institutions is briefly detailed and a summary discussion of the causative factors of famines is provided. We argue that the majority of the most severe medieval and early modern famines happen when a situation of high demographic pressure on the available resources couples with periods of meteorological instability of the kind unfavorable to wheat crops, and the crisis is so widespread that institutions are unable to provide effective remedies.

This paper analyzes how advanced Medieval and Early Modern Italian economies attempted to cope with famines. First, it provides an overview of the occurrence of famines and food shortages in Italy from the fifteenth to the seventeenth century, underlining the connections with overall climatic and demographic trends. Second, it focuses on the 1590s famine (the worst to affect Italy in the period), providing a general discussion and interpretation of its causes and characteristics, and describing and evaluating the strategies for coping with the crisis that developed within the Republic of Genoa and the Duchy of Ferrara. The article argues that when such a large-scale food crisis as that of the 1590s occurred, public action played a key role in providing relief.

In the last few years, the UK has adopted a fiercely competitive business tax policy by reducing the general tax burden on business and expanding individual regimes targeted to mobile factors: CFC rules, interest deductibility rules, and the Patent Box have made the UK very attractive for internationally mobile capital and profits. As the same time, the UK has strongly supported the OECD BEPS project aimed at reducing multinationals’ tax avoidance and, hence, we argue, at eliminating or constraining forms of tax competition among countries based on individual regimes targeted to mobile capital and profits. We claim that, especially in the implementation phase of the BEPS recommendations, there will be tensions between the UK competitiveness agenda and its support for the BEPS. Such tensions will be reconciled by shifting the UK tax competition policy from a mix of rate-based plus individual regimes policy to more of a rate-based approach. In this scenario, the government will have to tighten some specific measures aimed at attracting highly mobile capital and profits, such as the patent box regime and possibly interest deductions. At the same time, it will reduce the tax burden on both mobile and less mobile activities by implementing economy-wide cuts, allowed under BEPS. Most likely, such cuts would come from a further reduction in the headline corporate tax rate and the cuts announced in the July 2015 Budget should be interpreted in this light. Cuts in the headline rate essentially reduce the taxation on profits but they do not take account of the fact that for other decisions such as investment in tangible assets and information and communications technology, other elements of the tax code, such as capital allowances, are more important. To foster real investment, the government could consider an increase in capital allowances. Another option would be the introduction of an Allowance for Corporate Equity (ACE). The interesting feature of the ACE in the context of BEPS is that it reduces the incentive to classify financing instruments as tax-advantaged debt.

Discrimination in access to public services can act as a major obstacle towards addressing racial inequality. We examine whether racial discrimination exists in access to a wide spectrum of public services in the US. We carry out an email correspondence study in which we pose simple queries to more than 19,000 local public service providers. We find that emails are less likely to receive a response if signed by a black-sounding name compared to a white-sounding name. Given a response rate of 72% for white senders, emails from putatively black senders are almost 4 percentage points less likely to receive an answer. We also find that responses to queries coming from black names are less likely to have a cordial tone. Further tests suggest that the differential in the likelihood of answering is due to animus towards blacks rather than inferring socioeconomic status from race.

This paper provides some initial results of long-term trends in economic inequality in Catalonia from 1400-1800 ca. These first findings show that the evidence collected for Catalonia matches quite well with some hypotheses suggested previously in the literature. Namely, the high inequality levels prevalent across pre-industrial Europe; an inequality gradient that linked urban, more populated, and wealthier communities with greater inequality and vice versa; and the importance of the trends followed by the share owned by the wealthy as good predictors of economic inequality trends. However, at this stage, one of the most appealing propositions—the idea that economic inequality grew for the whole of Europe during the early-modern period, shaping a long left side of a “super Kuznets curve”—does not seem to be fully confirmed for Catalonia. From the mid-17th century, inequality growth seems to go hand-in-hand with growth in per capita GDP. In earlier periods, though, the inequality trend seems to be unrelated to economic growth and even, during the second half of the 16th century, there is some evidence of inequality decline coupled with economic growth.

In this paper we use a newly constructed dataset following 30,000 Italian individuals from high school to labor market and we analyze whether the gender composition of peers in high school affected their choice of college major, their academic performance and their labor market income. We leverage the fact that the composition of high school classmates (peers), within school-cohort and teacher-group, was not chosen by the students and it was as good as random. We find that male students graduating from classes with at least 80% of male peers were more likely to choose “prevalently male” (PM) college majors (Economics, Business and Engineering). However, this higher propensity to enroll in PM majors faded away during college (through transfers and attrition) so that men from classes with at least 80% of male peers in high school did not have higher probability of graduating in PM majors. They had instead worse college performance and did not exhibit any difference in income or labor market outcomes after college. We do not find significant effects on women.

ABSTRACT In this paper we allude to a novel role played by the non-linear income tax system in the presence of adverse selection in the labor market due to asymmetric information between workers and firms. We show that an appropriate choice of the tax schedule enables the government to affect the wage distribution by controlling the transmission of information in the labor market. This represents an additional channel through which the government can foster the pursuit of its redistributive goals.

ABSTRACT This paper examines how companies’ capital structure is affected by the corporate income tax system. Our analysis employs confidential company-level corporation tax return data in the UK. Our main identification strategy is based on variation in companies␣ marginal tax rates due to the existence of kinks in the corporate tax rate schedule. Using a dynamic adjustment model of capital structure, we find a positive and substantial long-run tax effect on companies' financial leverage. We show that there are considerable discrepancies between estimates of taxable profits reported in tax return data and in financial statements and that the estimated tax effect on capital structure using financial statements is likely to be biased downward. We find that companies adjust their capital structures gradually in response to changes in the marginal tax rate. Moreover, we find that the external leverage of domestic stand-alone companies and of multinational companies responds strongly to corporate tax incentives

ABSTRACT We investigate the effect of providing information about the benefits to children of attending formal child care when women intend to use formal child care so they can work. We postulate that the reaction to the information differs across women according to their characteristics, specifically their level of education. We present a randomized experiment in which 700 Italian women of reproductive age with no children are exposed to positive information about formal child care through a text message or a video, while others are not. We find a positive effect on the intention to use formal child care, and a negative effect on the intention to work. This average result hides important heterogeneities: the positive effect on formal child care use is driven by better-educated women, while the negative effect on work intention is found only among less-educated women. These findings may be explained by women’s education reflecting their work-family orientation, and their ability to afford formal child care.

ABSTRACT This paper reassesses the relationship between tax structure and long run income, using as indicators of tax structure both a new series of implicit tax rates based on Mendoza et al. (1997) and tax ratios, adopting a dynamic panel estimation strategy, and explicitly accounting for cross-section dependence in the panel. When implicit tax rates are used, the paper shows, the link between tax structure and long run income per capita is not robust to the adoption of different assumptions on observable and unobservable heterogeneity across countries. When tax ratios are used, there is some evidence of a negative impact of labour taxation on long run income, but this result is shown to capture non-fiscal effects coming from the evolution of the labour share. Turning to the short run, the research presented here finds strong evidence of a positive effect on per capita income of a tax shift from labour and capital taxation towards consumption taxation, which provides support for fiscal devaluations.